API Report-Difficult To Reconcile The Data- April 27th.

Published on 28 April 2010 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

The API reported yesterday that for the week ending April 23 crude oil stocks rose by 5.344 million barrels off a revised base for the previous week. Refinery crude oil runs eased by 70 MB/D to 14.97 MMB/D while gross imports fell by 456 MB/D to 9.439 MMB/D. Attempting to reconcile the data with estimated domestic production suggests that crude oil stocks “should have” declined modestly, however, and we do not believe the DOE will report such a large build later this morning. The API also reported that primary gasoline inventories fell by 658,000 barrels to 219.413 million barrels. Refinery output of finished mogas dropped by 196 MB/D to 8.983 MMB/D, while gross imports of total gasoline rose by 280 MB/D to 826 MB/D. The numbers suggest implied gasoline demand averaging 9.9 MMB/D, too robust for the time being, and we would expect the DOE to report a modest build in supplies. Finally, the API reported a distillate stock draw of 1.369 million barrels to 145.511 million barrels. Refinery output declined by 68 MB/D to average 3.924 MMB/D while gross imports rose by 30 MB/D to 197 MB/D. The API reported that implied distillate demand averaged 3.811 MMB/D, which under our estimate of exports makes sense, taking the other API distillate variables at face value. As previously discussed, we need to see implied distillate demand on a DOE basis recover to at least 3.7 MMB/D to confirm that the U.S. economy is not slowing down from March’s performance.