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The API reported that for the week ending September 17 crude oil stocks rose by 2.231 million barrels to 364.069 million barrels, while distillate supplies gained by 2.509 million barrels to 170.014 million barrels.  Primary gasoline stocks increased by 2.422 million barrels to 227.753 million barrels. Once again the data in general were not internally consistent, but we shall see what the DOE holds in store.  Even if the DOE reports gross crude oil imports as robust as the API’s assuming refinery runs were little changed or up slightly would still imply some degree of decline in crude oil inventories.  Our analysis would also have some difficulty coming up with the product builds the API reported.  In any event, if the DOE data are more constructive than consensus expectations, traders and funds may use it as an excuse to stage a recovery from yesterday’s decline, throwing in the weaker dollar to boot.

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