The latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.7 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 700,000 barrel fall in distillate supplies, and a 2.1 million barrel gain in gasoline inventories.  Our customary stab at the data would imply a crude oil stock build slightly larger than the market is looking for.  Our numbers would also suggest a distillate stock increase in contrast to consensus expectations of a draw.  Implied demand should rebound further from the previous week, but as much due to reversion of diesel demand to our expected mean as weather.  NOAA reports that on a home oil furnace-weighted basis, last week was 6.1% colder than normal and 34.0% colder than last year, but thus far this winter we have observed a continue conservation/substitution effect.  Nonetheless, refinery output plus imports can more than offset any incremental demand.  For gasoline, we are looking for a stock build somewhat less than analysts’ expectations assuming steady supply and a recovery in implied demand.

Tags: diesel demand, gasoline demand, NOAA home oil furnace weighted basis, platts inventory estimate, Platts oil inventory assessment, platts survey