The latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.2 million barrel draw in crude oil stocks, a 900,000 barrel gain in distillate supplies, and a 2.8 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories.  Our stab at the numbers would suggest a modest rebuild in stocks, as would be customary.  Some analysts are citing the discount of WTI to offshore crudes, therefore eliminating the arb incentive to bring in incremental imports, but this is misleading for two reasons.  First, WTI is landlocked and Gulf Coast sour crudes such as Mars are actually selling at a premium to WTI, a reversal of the customary relationship and second, import levels are also a function of refiner tax strategies around this time, and not simply whether the arb is open or not.  For distillate, we have been commenting recently about relatively weak implied demand, and NOAA reports that last week on a home oil furnace-weighted basis, temperatures were only modestly colder than normal.  Adding up our components suggests a larger stock build than the market is looking for, even if demand rebounds to more than 3.8 MMB/D.  For gasoline, assuming a modest recovery in implied demand from the previous week, stocks should have increased, but less than consensus expectations.

Tags: platts inventory estimate, Platts oil inventory assessment, platts survey