US Crude Stocks- Up 5.691 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.953 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.112 MB
Foe the week ending March 25 the latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.2 million barrel crude oil stock build, a 1.9 million barrel draw in gasoline supplies, and a 1.4 million barrel fall in distillate fuel oil inventories. Looking first at crude oil, we assume a modest further recovery in runs with imports and domestic production about steady from the previous week. As such, our arithmetic would imply a crude oil build somewhat short of consensus expectations. For gasoline, we would look for demand, production and gross imports to have remained about steady with the prior period, with inventory movements influenced by refiner seasonal grade considerations once again. Our numbers yield a draw slightly exceeding what the market is looking for. Finally, for distillate fuel oil implied demand likely recovered a bit last week. NOAA reports that on a home oil furnace-weighted basis, weather was 14.8% colder than normal and 56.5% colder than last year, although at this time of year total heating degree days are relatively modest compared to one or two months ago. Assuming steady refinery output and gross imports, we estimate a distillate stock draw somewhat short of analysts’ estimates.
03/18/11 03/11/11 CHANGE YEAR AGO
| (BCF) (BCF) (BCF) (BCF) |
| CONSUMING REGION EAST 675 697 -22 761 |
| CONSUMING REGION WEST 222 221 1 285 |
| PRODUCING REGION 715 700 15 578 |
| TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 1612 1618 -6 1624 |
US Crude Stocks- Up 2.031 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 5.32 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.007 MB
US Crude Stocks- Up 0.97 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 7.883 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.612 MB
