Oil may have either its own comeuppance or place in the sun via the weekly DOE stats. In this regard, the latest Platts survey for the week ending October 14 is looking for a 1.75 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.1 million barrel decline in distillate stocks, and a 1.25 million barrel fall in gasoline supplies. Our cursory cut at the crude oil data would suggest a falloff in imports in tandem with continued healthy domestic production and steady crude oil runs. The combination would imply a crude oil stock build short of consensus expectations. For distillate, almost irrespective of the pace of the economy we would expect implied distillate demand to ease back from the average of the last couple weeks, perhaps to 3.7-3.8 MMB/D or so. Assuming roughly steady supply would imply a build in stocks. Finally, for gasoline we would also look for a modest weakening in implied demand back to the underlying trend, a recovery in imports, and steady refinery output. The combination would suggest a gasoline draw less than the prior week, but exceeding market expectations.
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