The DOE states the weekly data will be released as customary on Wednesday morning. In this

regard, the latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.5 million

barrel decline in distillate supplies, and a 1.5 million barrel build in gasoline inventories. Our cursory cut at

the data would suggest that crude oil runs were steady to up modestly, domestic crude oil production

averaged close to 5.9 MMB/D, but gross imports recovered from the prior week. Nonetheless, our

arithmetic yields a modest crude oil stock draw. For distillate, we would look for a further easing in

implied demand to around 4.0 MMB/D. Gross imports should ease somewhat, refinery production about

steady, while gross exports remain quite healthy. We would look for a distillate stock decline somewhat

smaller than consensus expectations. Finally, despite an expected modest recovery in implied demand from

the prior week and a retracement in both gross imports and refinery output, our numbers suggest a larger

gasoline stock build than the market is looking for.

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The market may find some reason to respond to the weekly DOE data in the context of all things global.  In this regard, the latest Platts survey is looking for unchanged crude oil stocks, a 1.5 million barrel draw in distillate supplies, and a 1.15 million barrel gain in gasoline inventories.  Our cut at the numbers would suggest a modest draw in crude oil stocks, assuming generally steady runs and only a marginal gain in imports from the prior week.  For distillate, we would look for a stock decline smaller than consensus expectations, while gasoline supplies are estimated to have increased somewhat more than the market is looking for, assuming implied demand remains relatively weak.

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Holiday Schedule Thanksgiving 2011

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Click on thie link: dailyenergy to access report.

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