US Crude Stocks- Up 4.16 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 1.648 at 33.813 MB)
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.6 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.069 MB
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US Crude Stocks- Up 0.521MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 1.639 MB at 33.796 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.916 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 3.311 MB
The latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.3 million barrel decline in distillate supplies, and a 180,000 barrel fall in gasoline inventories. From our perspective, if crude oil runs remain about even with last week, a modest further recovery in gross crude oil imports should lead to a build, but well below consensus expectations. For distillate, we would look for a recovery in implied demand from the previous week’s depressed average of 3.324 MMB/D. Even if demand recovers to about 3.8 MMB/D or so, however, with supply relatively constant it would still imply a distillate draw less than analysts’ estimates. For gasoline, we believe implied demand likely fell off a bit from the prior week’s above-trend recovery. Even with a falloff in gross imports and steady domestic supply, our numbers imply a modest build in gasoline stocks.
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a smaller-than-normal draw in gas inventories, as mild weather across the U.S. continues to curb demand for gas-fired heating.
| The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report 119 billion cubic feet of gas were drawn from storage during the week ended Feb. 10, according to the average prediction of 19 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. |
| The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET. |
| The survey’s median result was for a draw of 120 billion cubic feet, with estimates ranging from a 85 bcf decline to a 133 bcf draw. The storage estimate is less than last year’s 230-bcf draw in storage for the same week, and less than the 178-bcf five-year average draw for the week. |
| If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 10 will total 2.769 trillion cubic feet, about 39% above the five-year average and 42% above last year’s level for the same week. |
US Crude Stocks- Down 0.171 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 1.99 at 32.48 MB)
US Gasoline Stocks- Up 0.40 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.867 MB
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Late yesterday the API released its data for the week ending February 10, reporting a 2.902 million barrel crude oil stock build to 337.833 million barrels. Reconciling the API inputs, however, suggests there should have been a decline of almost an equal magnitude. The API also reported a higher-than-expected distillate stock fall of 2.156 million barrels to 142.085 million barrels. The primary influence on the draw was a jump in implied demand to 4.146 MMB/D. On a DOE basis, for the week ending February 3 implied demand averaged 3.436 MMB/D, which struck us as low even adjusting for weather. We would look for implied demand to have rebounded last week on a DOE basis, but perhaps not quite to the extent reported by the API. Finally, the API reported a 1.812 million barrel gain in primary gasoline supplies to 230.742 million barrels. Given our assumption of a modest recovery in implied demand last week, we would look for a bit smaller build on a DOE basis.
