The EIA released the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending November 17, and we provide our thoughts on the data within the context of our forecast refinery balances.  In sum, the crude oil draw was roughly in line, the negligible gasoline stock increase was somewhat constructive, while the distillate build was bearish, all relative to consensus expectations.

Turning first to crude oil, the EIA reported that commercial inventories fell by some 1.9 million barrels to 457.1 million barrels, below last year by 31.9 million barrels.  Stocks in PAD II fell by 2.4 million barrels, including a draw at Cushing of 1.9 million barrels.  Supplies in PAD III declined by 2.5 million barrels.  Adding up all other districts yields a stock build of 3.2 million barrels.

Refiner crude oil inputs recovered by 199 MB/D from the previous week and exceeded 16.8 MMB/D.  Gross crude oil imports eased by 25 MB/D and averaged almost 7.9 MMB/D.  Estimated gross exports recovered by 469 MB/D and averaged almost 1.6 MMB/D.

We would note, however, that adding up the individual variables implies a stock decline in excess of 6.0 million barrels, i.e. comparable to the magnitude reported by the API.


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