The latest weekly stats, the Platts survey for the week ending February 3 calls for a 2.25 million barrel gain in crude oil supplies, a 200,000 barrel decline in distillate stocks, and a 1.25 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories. The latest Reuters survey calls for a 2.6 million barrel rise in crude oil supplies, a 600,000 barrel fall in distillate stocks, and a 200,000 barrel gain in gasoline inventories. With regard to crude oil, our cursory cut at the data would suggest, assuming steady production and refinery runs in combination with a slight decline in gross imports, a stock build somewhat less than consensus expectations. We estimate that implied distillate demand should have rebounded last week to 3.8+ MMB/D despite the weather as diesel demand reverts to our expected underlying mean. With steady supply, however, our scenario would still imply little change in total distillate inventories last week. For gasoline, we would look for a rebound in implied demand back above 8.0 MMB/D, with gross imports retracing from the previous week’s average exceeding 1.0 MMB/D. Nonetheless, with steady refinery output our arithmetic would imply a stock build in between the Reuters and Platts estimates, i.e. around 700,000 barrels.
By David Bird
| Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES |
| Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a smaller-than-normal draw in gas inventories, as mild weather across the U.S. continues to curb demand for gas-fired heating. |
| The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report 126 billion cubic feet of gas were drawn from storage during the week ended Jan. 27, according to the average prediction of 16 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. |
| The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST. |
| The survey’s median result was for a draw of 127 billion cubic feet, with estimates ranging from a 111 bcf decline to a 135 bcf draw. |
| The storage estimate is less than last year’s 171-bcf draw in storage for the same week, and less than the 202-bcf five-year average draw for the week. |
| If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Jan. 27 will total 2.972 trillion cubic feet, about 26% above the five-year average and 25% above last year’s level for the same week. |
US Crude Stocks- Up 4.175 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 1.476 at 30.123 MB)
US Gasoline Stocks- Up 3.017 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.135 MB
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US Crude Stocks- Up 2.067 MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 1.482 MB at 30.133 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.222 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.97 MB
The latest Platts survey for the week ending January 27 is looking for a 3.0 million barrel build in crude stocks, a 1.2 million barrel draw in distillate supplies, and a 1.0 million barrel gain in gasoline inventories. Our cut at the numbers would suggest a somewhat smaller crude oil build than what the market is looking for but a more modest distillate stock decline, and a slight fall in gasoline stocks in contrast to consensus expectations of a build.
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US Crude Stocks- Up 3.558 MB (Cushing Stocks -UP 0.374 at 28.647 MB)
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.39 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.456 MB
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US Crude Stocks- Up 7.331 MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 0.386 MB at 28.651 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.573 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.464 MB
Hornsby Trading News
- Platts Energy Inventory Survey Plus Hornsby & Company Inventory Assessment – February 7th.
- US NATURAL GAS INVENTORY SURVEY: Draw Of 126 Bcf Expected – Dow Jones
- Weekly DOE Inventory Report – February 1st.
- API Inventory Report – January 31st.
- Platts Energy Inventory Survey Plus Hornsby & Company Inventory Assessment – January 31st.