US Crude Stocks- Up 5.691 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.953 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.112 MB
Foe the week ending March 25 the latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.2 million barrel crude oil stock build, a 1.9 million barrel draw in gasoline supplies, and a 1.4 million barrel fall in distillate fuel oil inventories. Looking first at crude oil, we assume a modest further recovery in runs with imports and domestic production about steady from the previous week. As such, our arithmetic would imply a crude oil build somewhat short of consensus expectations. For gasoline, we would look for demand, production and gross imports to have remained about steady with the prior period, with inventory movements influenced by refiner seasonal grade considerations once again. Our numbers yield a draw slightly exceeding what the market is looking for. Finally, for distillate fuel oil implied demand likely recovered a bit last week. NOAA reports that on a home oil furnace-weighted basis, weather was 14.8% colder than normal and 56.5% colder than last year, although at this time of year total heating degree days are relatively modest compared to one or two months ago. Assuming steady refinery output and gross imports, we estimate a distillate stock draw somewhat short of analysts’ estimates.
03/18/11 03/11/11 CHANGE YEAR AGO
| (BCF) (BCF) (BCF) (BCF) |
| CONSUMING REGION EAST 675 697 -22 761 |
| CONSUMING REGION WEST 222 221 1 285 |
| PRODUCING REGION 715 700 15 578 |
| TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 1612 1618 -6 1624 |
US Crude Stocks- Up 2.031 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 5.32 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.007 MB
US Crude Stocks- Up 0.97 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 7.883 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.612 MB
Amidst all the international turmoil, the weekly DOE data may still have some impact on the market, however transitory. In this regard, the latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.0 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a gasoline stock draw of 2.0 million barrels, and a decline in distillate supplies of 1.5 million barrels. Our look at the crude oil picture would suggest steady to a slight uptick in runs, with domestic production averaging close to 5.6 MMB/D. Gross imports for the week ending March 18 are estimated to have been about even with the prior period, and our tally would imply that crude oil stocks were roughly unchanged on the week.
For products, we guesstimate that implied gasoline demand was slightly off last week, reflecting a modest response thus far to higher pump prices via a modest reduction in discretionary driving. Refinery production is assumed to have recovered a bit along with gross imports. However, the continued refiner transition from winter to summer grade suggests to us that primary gasoline inventories fell more than consensus expectations. For distillate, we believe implied demand eased a bit more from the previous week with weather 19.0% warmer than normal on a home oil furnace-weighted basis, according to NOAA. Refinery production and gross imports were steady to up slightly last week, according to our calculations. However, our arithmetic still implies a distillate stock draw larger than what the market is looking for.
Hornsby Trading News
- MARKET TALK: ICE July Brent Struggles To Extend Gains Dow Jones May 21st.
- Baker Hughes: Weekly US Gas Rig Count Up 2 In Week To 600
- *EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +61 Bcf At 2667 Bcf
- NOAA: Above Normal June-August Temperatures Seen For Southern Half Of US
- Weekly DOE Inventory Report – May 16th.