US Crude Stocks- Down 4.533 MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 0.385 MB at 30.518 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Up 4.429 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.386 MB
The latest weekly stats, the Platts survey for the week ending February 3 calls for a 2.25 million barrel gain in crude oil supplies, a 200,000 barrel decline in distillate stocks, and a 1.25 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories. The latest Reuters survey calls for a 2.6 million barrel rise in crude oil supplies, a 600,000 barrel fall in distillate stocks, and a 200,000 barrel gain in gasoline inventories. With regard to crude oil, our cursory cut at the data would suggest, assuming steady production and refinery runs in combination with a slight decline in gross imports, a stock build somewhat less than consensus expectations. We estimate that implied distillate demand should have rebounded last week to 3.8+ MMB/D despite the weather as diesel demand reverts to our expected underlying mean. With steady supply, however, our scenario would still imply little change in total distillate inventories last week. For gasoline, we would look for a rebound in implied demand back above 8.0 MMB/D, with gross imports retracing from the previous week’s average exceeding 1.0 MMB/D. Nonetheless, with steady refinery output our arithmetic would imply a stock build in between the Reuters and Platts estimates, i.e. around 700,000 barrels.
US Crude Stocks- Up 2.067 MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 1.482 MB at 30.133 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.222 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.97 MB
US Crude Stocks- Up 7.331 MB —- Cushing Stocks Up 0.386 MB at 28.651 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.573 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.464 MB
US Crude Stocks- Down 4.809 MB —- Cushing Stocks Down 0.819 MB at 28.265 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Up 4.309 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.9 MB
Late yesterday the API reported that for the week ending January 6, U.S. crude oil stocks rose 397,000 barrels to 334.875 million barrels in contrast to market expectations of a draw. The “arithmetic” implied a larger build, but part of discrepancy was due to the tabulation of Alaskan crude in transit, which can also impact the DOE data. With regard to refined products, the API reported that distillate fuel oil stocks rose by 846,000 barrels to 146.249 million barrels, while gasoline supplies increased by 1.892 million barrels to 220.987 million barrels. As previously discussed, we would look for the DOE data to be somewhat more constructive than consensus expectations, but we shall see.
Late yesterday the API released its weekly data set for the week ending December 30. As one would expect, the API reported a hefty 4.429 million barrel crude oil stock draw, reflecting customary year-end tax strategies. As previously discussed, we are looking for a DOE draw exceeding consensus expectations, but perhaps not quite the magnitude reported by the API. Their surveys also revealed a 5.245 million barrel gain in distillate supplies and a 3.382 million barrel build in gasoline inventories. It strikes us that the DOE is likely to report somewhat different refinery production and implied demand numbers, and thus we would not look for the DOE to report quite as large product builds as reported by the API. We have difficulty reconciling the API gasoline data in any event unless exports collapsed. For distillate, we have assumed a recovery in implied demand from the previous week, but if it did not, the DOE could report a hefty build, but still somewhat short of the API’s 5.0+ million barrel gain.
US Crude Stocks- Up 9.57 MB —- Cushing Stocks Down 0.292 MB at 29.905 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Up 1.859 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Up 0.554 MB
The neopress is pointing out that U.S. crude stocks stand at the lowest level since the week ending December 26, 2008. At that time, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was trading under $40.00 per barrel reflecting the global financial meltdown and recession, so low stocks were obviously not much of a factor in price determination. In addition, at that time the days supply of crude oil, more relevant than the absolute level, stood at 22.5. Last week’s days supply was 22.2, so not that far from the December 2008 value. Also, if we look at DOE month-end data for the last several years, U.S. crude stocks have been far lower than they were last week. For example, if we look back at this decade, the lowest we see is only 18.1 days at end-August 2003. At that time the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was trading around $31.00 per barrel. Of course, we can also fast forward to June 2008, when end-June stocks stood at a modestly higher 19.3 days and the prompt NYMEX crude contract was trading at $140.00 per barrel.
US Crude Stocks- Down 4.5746MB —- Cushing Stocks Down 1.01 MB at 30.2 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.394 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.779 MB
