Crude Oil Futures | Hornsby Energy Trading

OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Continues To Outperform Brent – December 23rd. WSJ

Published on 23 December 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude-oil futures were mixed Friday, trading in a narrow range, but analysts said they may easily swing up or down in the next few sessions in the thin holiday trade.

“Given low volumes and the potential interest to mark the end-of-the-year price level, it is going to be difficult to interpret the fundamentals according to the flat price movements over the next five trading days,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of Swiss consultancy Petromatrix, said in a note.

“Given low volumes and the potential interest to mark the end-of-the-year price level, it is going to be difficult to interpret the fundamentals according to the flat price movements over the next five trading days,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of Swiss consultancy Petromatrix, said in a note.

At 1113 GMT, the front-month February Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was 11 cents, or 0.1%, down at $107.78 a barrel. The front-month February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading up 27c, or 0.3%, at $99.80 per barrel.

At 1113 GMT, the front-month February Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was 11 cents, or 0.1%, down at $107.78 a barrel. The front-month February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading up 27c, or 0.3%, at $99.80 per barrel.

Nymex crude continues to outperform Brent following a string of upbeat U.S. macro-economic news this week.

Nymex crude continues to outperform Brent following a string of upbeat U.S. macro-economic news this week.

“WTI continues to attack the resistance of $100.00 a barrel, even though using the word ‘attack’ might be a bit strong when volume are so low,” Jakob said.

“WTI continues to attack the resistance of $100.00 a barrel, even though using the word ‘attack’ might be a bit strong when volume are so low,” Jakob said.

But it is surprising that Brent has shown a much more modest growth than Nymex crude, given Thursday’s bombings in Iraq and media reports that Iran plans to launch a 10-day naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz Saturday, said the Schork Report.

But it is surprising that Brent has shown a much more modest growth than Nymex crude, given Thursday’s bombings in Iraq and media reports that Iran plans to launch a 10-day naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz Saturday, said the Schork Report.

“Keep in mind that WTI is priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, a landlocked hub very, very far from Iraq–thus the ARA [Europe's key oil] hub should be more sensitive to [Middle East] turmoil, not less,” it added.

“Keep in mind that WTI is priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, a landlocked hub very, very far from Iraq–thus the ARA [Europe's key oil] hub should be more sensitive to [Middle East] turmoil, not less,” it added.

The Brent/WTI spread has narrowed to below $8 a barrel, and it is unlikely to widen over $10 a barrel into 2012 as the supply side situation is normalizing for Brent with the return of Libyan oil, while the U.S. Midwest oil glut is dissipating, said VTB Capital’s Andrey Kryuchenkov.

The Brent/WTI spread has narrowed to below $8 a barrel, and it is unlikely to widen over $10 a barrel into 2012 as the supply side situation is normalizing for Brent with the return of Libyan oil, while the U.S. Midwest oil glut is dissipating, said VTB Capital’s Andrey Kryuchenkov.

At 1113 GMT, the ICE’s gasoil contract for January delivery was up 25 cents at $919.75 per metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for January delivery was 13 points lower at $2.6385 per gallon.

At 1113 GMT, the ICE’s gasoil contract for January delivery was up 25 cents at $919.75 per metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for January delivery was 13 points lower at $2.6385 per gallon.

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Lowest Level Since 2008 – So What!

Published on 22 December 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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The neopress is pointing out that U.S. crude stocks stand at the lowest level since the week ending December 26, 2008. At that time, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was trading under $40.00 per barrel reflecting the global financial meltdown and recession, so low stocks were obviously not much of a factor in price determination. In addition, at that time the days supply of crude oil, more relevant than the absolute level, stood at 22.5. Last week’s days supply was 22.2, so not that far from the December 2008 value. Also, if we look at DOE month-end data for the last several years, U.S. crude stocks have been far lower than they were last week. For example, if we look back at this decade, the lowest we see is only 18.1 days at end-August 2003. At that time the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was trading around $31.00 per barrel. Of course, we can also fast forward to June 2008, when end-June stocks stood at a modestly higher 19.3 days and the prompt NYMEX crude contract was trading at $140.00 per barrel.

OIL FUTURES: Crude Gains As Stock Markets Point Higher – Dow Jones December 19th.

Published on 19 December 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude futures rose Monday, helped by gains in equity markets and some concerns about stability in Asia following the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jung Il.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude futures rose Monday, helped by gains in equity markets and some concerns about stability in Asia following the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jung Il.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery recently traded 67 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $94.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 93 cents higher at $104.28 a barrel.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery recently traded 67 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $94.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 93 cents higher at $104.28 a barrel.

Oil prices were higher along with equities markets, which have served commodities traders as a barometer of broader economic sentiment for much of the past year. European markets rose ahead of a conference call of euro-zone ministers set for Monday, where leaders will discuss greater fiscal consolidation and providing additional funding to the International Monetary Fund.

Oil prices were higher along with equities markets, which have served commodities traders as a barometer of broader economic sentiment for much of the past year. European markets rose ahead of a conference call of euro-zone ministers set for Monday, where leaders will discuss greater fiscal consolidation and providing additional funding to the International Monetary Fund.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industiral Average were recently up 43 points to 11821.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industiral Average were recently up 43 points to 11821.

After falling nearly 6% last week and breaking well below the 200-day moving average, the market was primed for a rebound, said Phil Flynn, analyst with PFG Best in Chicago.

After falling nearly 6% last week and breaking well below the 200-day moving average, the market was primed for a rebound, said Phil Flynn, analyst with PFG Best in Chicago.

“Looks like there is a little bit of risk tolerance coming back into the market,” he said.

“Looks like there is a little bit of risk tolerance coming back into the market,” he said.

Jim Ritterbusch, head of trading advisor Ritterbusch and Associates, said economic data from the U.S. this week could offer some support to oil prices.

Jim Ritterbusch, head of trading advisor Ritterbusch and Associates, said economic data from the U.S. this week could offer some support to oil prices.

“We are looking for focus to shift away from the euro zone and toward the U.S. this week,” Ritterbusch said in a research report, adding that economic reports should “surprise to the bullish side.”

“We are looking for focus to shift away from the euro zone and toward the U.S. this week,” Ritterbusch said in a research report, adding that economic reports should “surprise to the bullish side.”

The death over the weekend of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il also kept prices aimed higher. Traders are concerned about increased instability in the region and the potential for some conflict during the transition to Kim’s successor.

The death over the weekend of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il also kept prices aimed higher. Traders are concerned about increased instability in the region and the potential for some conflict during the transition to Kim’s successor.

South Korea put its military on “high alert” and the Obama administration is “closely monitoring” the situation.

South Korea put its military on “high alert” and the Obama administration is “closely monitoring” the situation.

The youngest of Kim Jong Il’s three sons, Kim Jong Eun, is expected to lead the country.

The youngest of Kim Jong Il’s three sons, Kim Jong Eun, is expected to lead the country.

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 3.31 cents, or 1.3%, higher at $2.5201 a gallon. January heating oil recently traded 1.93 cents higher at $2.8198 a gallon.

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 3.31 cents, or 1.3%, higher at $2.5201 a gallon. January heating oil recently traded 1.93 cents higher at $2.8198 a gallon.

*OIL FUTURES: Oil Pushes Lower, Nymex Crude Nears $94/Bbl – Dow Jones

Published on 15 December 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Oil futures turned lower, pushing deeper into negative territory a day after their 5% plunge, as equities pared their earlier gains.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 75 cents, or 0.8%, to $94.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on ICE Futures Europe remained higher, trading up 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $105.40 a barrel.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 75 cents, or 0.8%, to $94.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on ICE Futures Europe remained higher, trading up 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $105.40 a barrel.

Futures lost their earlier momentum after U.S. stock markets pulled back from their earlier highs. Crude futures have been taking cues from equities for the last several months, as traders turn to stocks as a barometer of sentiment on the broader U.S. economy.

Futures lost their earlier momentum after U.S. stock markets pulled back from their earlier highs. Crude futures have been taking cues from equities for the last several months, as traders turn to stocks as a barometer of sentiment on the broader U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 0.5%, at 11887.1, after earlier climbing as high as 11,967.8.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 0.5%, at 11887.1, after earlier climbing as high as 11,967.8.

“We’re just bouncing back and forth,” said Fred Rigolini, vice president of Paramount Options, an oil options brokerage in New York, adding that the pullback in equities was a factor behind the turn lower. “For now, we’re just following that.”

“We’re just bouncing back and forth,” said Fred Rigolini, vice president of Paramount Options, an oil options brokerage in New York, adding that the pullback in equities was a factor behind the turn lower. “For now, we’re just following that.”

Nymex crude had earlier climbed as high as $95.99 a barrel before pulling back, lifted by a slew of positive economic data out of the U.S.

Nymex crude had earlier climbed as high as $95.99 a barrel before pulling back, lifted by a slew of positive economic data out of the U.S.

Jobless claims fell 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, their lowest level since May 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. The data were the latest signal that the sluggish U.S. labor market is picking up, and comes on the heels of a report earlier this month that unemployment in November fell below 9%.

Jobless claims fell 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, their lowest level since May 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. The data were the latest signal that the sluggish U.S. labor market is picking up, and comes on the heels of a report earlier this month that unemployment in November fell below 9%.

Meanwhile, both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers see the U.S. recovery continuing in 2012, a semiannual outlook from the Institute for Supply Management said, adding that U.S. manufacturers expect revenue to grow 5.5% next year.

Meanwhile, both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers see the U.S. recovery continuing in 2012, a semiannual outlook from the Institute for Supply Management said, adding that U.S. manufacturers expect revenue to grow 5.5% next year.

Traders have been closely following headlines on the U.S. economy for hints that growth is picking up again and oil demand is recovering. The tepid recovery has kept a lid on oil demand for much of this year, as fewer workers hit the road every morning and fewer travelers take vacations.

Traders have been closely following headlines on the U.S. economy for hints that growth is picking up again and oil demand is recovering. The tepid recovery has kept a lid on oil demand for much of this year, as fewer workers hit the road every morning and fewer travelers take vacations.

Similar concerns have kept traders glued to developments in Europe, where worries about the sovereign debt crisis have sent currency traders dumping the euro in favor of the dollar and also prompted concerns about weakening oil demand.

Similar concerns have kept traders glued to developments in Europe, where worries about the sovereign debt crisis have sent currency traders dumping the euro in favor of the dollar and also prompted concerns about weakening oil demand.

On Wednesday, a plunge in the euro below $1.30 and a stronger dollar battered oil prices. A strengthening greenback typically weakens oil prices by making the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

On Wednesday, a plunge in the euro below $1.30 and a stronger dollar battered oil prices. A strengthening greenback typically weakens oil prices by making the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The single currency, however, found some stability Thursday, rallying 0.2%, to $1.3046.

The single currency, however, found some stability Thursday, rallying 0.2%, to $1.3046.

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded up 0.44 cent, or 0.1%, to $2.5081 a gallon. January heating oil advanced 1.29 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.8428 a gallon.

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded up 0.44 cent, or 0.1%, to $2.5081 a gallon. January heating oil advanced 1.29 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.8428 a gallon.