DOE Energy Inventory Report | Hornsby Energy Trading

API reported that for the week ending December 23 crude oil stocks rose a hefty 9.57 million barrels to 339.597 million barrels in contrast to expectations of a draw, reflecting a recovery in gross imports by more than 500 MB/D. Distillate stocks gained 554,000 barrels to 140.158 million barrels, while gasoline supplies increased by 1.859 million barrels. While we would not look for the DOE data to reveal as large a magnitude of build as the API, the numbers probably reflected the recovery of booked volumes that were delayed due to weather problems in the Houston Ship Channel the prior week. Thus, last week’s numbers to be released later this morning may show a large recovery in imports leading to a temporary build, to be followed next week by a sharp drop in imports for tax reasons, leading to the customary net draw in crude stocks for December as a whole. In terms of products, last week we indicated that the bullish data for the week ending December 16 reflected the combination of lower supply and higher demand occurring simultaneously. For the week ending December 23 we have suggested a retracement in both gasoline and distillate implied demand, which would lead to product stats somewhat less constructive than consensus expectations. Part of our reasoning on gasoline was that pre-Christmas secondary stocking would essentially be offset by weaker underlying consumption, but we shall see.

DOE Weekly Inventory Report – December 21st.

Published on 21 December 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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US Crude Stocks- Down 10.87 MB (Cushing Stocks – Down 0.99 at 30.198 MB)

US Gasoline Stocks- Down 0.421 MB

US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.352 MB

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Platts and Hornsby & Company Energy Inventory Outlook – November 29th.

Published on 29 November 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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The DOE states the weekly data will be released as customary on Wednesday morning. In this

regard, the latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.5 million

barrel decline in distillate supplies, and a 1.5 million barrel build in gasoline inventories. Our cursory cut at

the data would suggest that crude oil runs were steady to up modestly, domestic crude oil production

averaged close to 5.9 MMB/D, but gross imports recovered from the prior week. Nonetheless, our

arithmetic yields a modest crude oil stock draw. For distillate, we would look for a further easing in

implied demand to around 4.0 MMB/D. Gross imports should ease somewhat, refinery production about

steady, while gross exports remain quite healthy. We would look for a distillate stock decline somewhat

smaller than consensus expectations. Finally, despite an expected modest recovery in implied demand from

the prior week and a retracement in both gross imports and refinery output, our numbers suggest a larger

gasoline stock build than the market is looking for.

DOE Weekly Inventory Report – October 26th.

Published on 26 October 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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US Crude Stocks- Up 4.735 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 0.419 at 31.511 MB)

US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.353 MB

US Distillate Stocks- Down 4.275 MB

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DOE Weekly Inventory Report – October 19th.

Published on 19 October 2011 by cwhornsby in Hornsby Energy Trading

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US Crude Stocks- Down 4.729 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 0.471 at 31.092 MB)

US Gasoline Stocks- Down 3.324 MB

US Distillate Stocks- Down 4.266 MB

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Weekly DOE Inventory Report – February 1st.

Weekly DOE Inventory Review – January 25th.

Weekly DOE Inventory Report – January 19th.

Weekly DOE Inventory Review – December 5th.

Weekly DOE Inventory Report – December 29th.

Energy Inventory Preview from Hornsby & Company, Inc. December 29th.

DOE Weekly Inventory Report – December 21st.

Platts and Hornsby & Company Energy Inventory Outlook – November 29th.

DOE Weekly Inventory Report – October 26th.

DOE Weekly Inventory Report – October 19th.

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