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The EIA released the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending November 17, and we provide our thoughts on the data within the context of our forecast refinery balances.  In sum, the crude oil draw was roughly in line, the negligible gasoline stock increase was somewhat constructive, while the distillate build was bearish, all relative to consensus expectations.

Turning first to crude oil, the EIA reported that commercial inventories fell by some 1.9 million barrels to 457.1 million barrels, below last year by 31.9 million barrels.  Stocks in PAD II fell by 2.4 million barrels, including a draw at Cushing of 1.9 million barrels.  Supplies in PAD III declined by 2.5 million barrels.  Adding up all other districts yields a stock build of 3.2 million barrels.

Refiner crude oil inputs recovered by 199 MB/D from the previous week and exceeded 16.8 MMB/D.  Gross crude oil imports eased by 25 MB/D and averaged almost 7.9 MMB/D.  Estimated gross exports recovered by 469 MB/D and averaged almost 1.6 MMB/D.

We would note, however, that adding up the individual variables implies a stock decline in excess of 6.0 million barrels, i.e. comparable to the magnitude reported by the API.

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Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Thursday showed (http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf) that domestic crude supplies fell by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 6. That was well above the forecast for a decline of 400,000 barrels by analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. In contrast, the American Petroleum Institute reported late Wednesday an increase of 3.1 million barrels, according to sources. Gasoline stockpiles were up 2.5 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles fell 1.5 million barrels, according to the EIA. The S&P Global Platts survey forecasted drops of 1.4 million for gasoline and 1.64 million for distillates. November crude fell 85 cents, or 1.7%, from Wednesday to $50.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded at $50.25 before the supply data (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-on-worries-about-rising-us-crude-stockpiles-2017-10-12). -Myra P. Saefong

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Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday showed (http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf) that domestic crude supplies climbed by 4.6 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 15. That’s above the forecast for a rise of 2.4 million barrels by analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute had reported late Tuesday an increase of 1.4 million barrels, according to sources. The EIA also reported that total domestic crude output rose by 157,000 barrels a day to 9.510 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles were down 2.1 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles fell 5.7 million barrels, according to the EIA. October crude , which expires at the day’s settlement, rose 52 cents, or 1.1%, to $50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded at $50.21 before the supply data (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-rise-on-signs-of-drop-in-global-inventories-2017-09-20).

 

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US Crude Stocks- Down 2.322 MB

US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.583 MB

US Distillate Stocks- Down 2.504 MB

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Crude Oil – Up 0.97 MB

Gasoline – Up 1.59 MB

Distillate – Up 0.347 MB

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Crude Oil Stocks – up 1.689 Mln bbls

Distillate Stocks – up 1.798 Mln bbls.

Gasoline Stocks – down 0.636 Mln bbls.

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