*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage -81 Bcf At 3548 Bcf
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- For the week ending December 23, the latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.3 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil stocks, a 1.2 million barrel fall in distillate supplies, and a 500,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories. In the context of our discussion yesterday morning, our expected crude oil stock decline would fall close to consensus expectations. Because we expect some retracement in implied distillate demand back toward our underling mean, we would look for a somewhat smaller decline in distillate supplies than the market is expecting. We are also looking for a modest build in gasoline supplies, but if pre-holiday secondary stocking exceeded our estimates primary inventories could have easily fallen in line with consensus expectations. We note the comparable period last year witnessed a healthy gasoline stock draw, but in general history is not perfectly consistent prior to the Christmas holiday. In addition, underlying gasoline consumption is so weak at the present time the arithmetic suggests it could offset any pre-holiday secondary stocking effect.
*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage -100 Bcf At 3629 Bcf
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The DOE states the weekly data will be released as customary on Wednesday morning. In this
regard, the latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.5 million
barrel decline in distillate supplies, and a 1.5 million barrel build in gasoline inventories. Our cursory cut at
the data would suggest that crude oil runs were steady to up modestly, domestic crude oil production
averaged close to 5.9 MMB/D, but gross imports recovered from the prior week. Nonetheless, our
arithmetic yields a modest crude oil stock draw. For distillate, we would look for a further easing in
implied demand to around 4.0 MMB/D. Gross imports should ease somewhat, refinery production about
steady, while gross exports remain quite healthy. We would look for a distillate stock decline somewhat
smaller than consensus expectations. Finally, despite an expected modest recovery in implied demand from
the prior week and a retracement in both gross imports and refinery output, our numbers suggest a larger
gasoline stock build than the market is looking for.
*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +92 Bcf At 3716 Bcf
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US Crude Stocks- Down 4.729 MB (Cushing Stocks – Up 0.471 at 31.092 MB)
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 3.324 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 4.266 MB
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*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +73 Bcf At 2906 Bcf
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*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +50 Bcf At 2833 Bcf
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US Crude Stocks- Down 5.225 MB
US Gasoline Stocks- Down 1.588 MB
US Distillate Stocks- Down 0.737 MB
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*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +43 Bcf At 2714 Bcf
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Hornsby Trading News
- Platts Energy Inventory Survey Plus Hornsby & Company Inventory Assessment – February 7th.
- US NATURAL GAS INVENTORY SURVEY: Draw Of 126 Bcf Expected – Dow Jones
- Weekly DOE Inventory Report – February 1st.
- API Inventory Report – January 31st.
- Platts Energy Inventory Survey Plus Hornsby & Company Inventory Assessment – January 31st.