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–Analysts expect 89 Bcf draw on inventories

–Double-digit draw would be lower than year ago, five-year averages
–Would leave inventories 17% higher than five-year average
 
By Christian Berthelsen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
 
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a smaller-than-average draw in natural-gas inventories as warm weather undercuts the peak heating season in key areas of the U.S.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 88.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas were withdrawn from storage during the week ended Jan. 6, according to the average prediction of 18 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
The survey’s median result was a draw of 88.5 billion cubic feet, with a high estimate of a 101-bcf draw and a low of a 72-bcf draw. The withdrawal estimate falls short of last year’s 137-bcf draw in storage for the same week and the 128-bcf five-year average draw for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Jan. 6 will total 3.383 trillion cubic feet, about 17.2% above the five-year average and 13.6% higher than last year’s level for the same week.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures have driven withdrawals to come in below average throughout the autumn and winter. Though there was a cold snap last week, overall temperatures have continued to be above normal in most areas of the country, including the northeastern areas that are key markets for gas-fired heating demand.
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Natural gas inventories are expected to build 110 bcf this week, as temperatures were slightly below-normal in popweighted

consumption areas and CDD forecasts moved further into the shoulder month of September. Our CDD

forecast is 28.9 and less than the 10-year normal of 37.1. A build of 110 bcf this week would compare to a five-year

average build of 68 bcf. Looking to next week, temperatures warm a bit across the country. Our early CDD forecast is

30.7 and much closer to the 10-year norm of 30.1. Such a reading would create a build in inventories of around 105

bcf and compare to a five-year average build of 74 bcf

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*EIA: US Total Working Gas In Storage +78 Bcf At 2432 Bcf
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Natural gas inventories are expected to show an increase of 75 bcf, which is a result of warmer-than-normal weather

advancing over the eastern half of the country. Such a build would compare to the five-year average of +27 bcf and

help inventories advance further on the five-year average. Inventories were 315 bcf above the five-year average last

week and closed in on the highest divergence of the year of 333 bcf set in early-May. The HDD forecast is 50.5

which compares to the 10-year average of 81.2. Looking to next week, the above average temps give way to belownormal

conditions and an HDD forecast of 102.0 vs. a 10-year norm of 93.4. The potential build in gas would be

around 40 bcf compared to a five-year average build of 35 bcf.

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Today’s storage report is expected to show a storage build of 33 BCF vs. a 29 BCF build last week and the 5 year average build of 37 BCF.

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Today’s storage report is expected to show a stock build of 35 BCF vs last week’s report of a build of 52 BCF and a 5 year avg. build 0f 48 BCF.

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dailyenergy

Click on “dailyenergy” link above to access report.

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a larger-than-average build in gas inventories amid mild weather in the major gas-consuming regions last week.

  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 100 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended May 21, according to the average prediction of 28 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
  The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  The survey’s median was also 100 billion cubic feet, with a high of a 110 bcf build and a low of a 90 bcf injection. The storage estimate falls short of last year’s 106 bcf build in storage for the same week, but surpasses the five-year average build for that week, which was 94 bcf.
  If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of May 21 will total 2.265 trillion cubic feet, about 16% above the five-year average and 3% above last year’s level for the same week.
  Moderate temperatures across much of the U.S. last week curbed the demand for natural gas for cooling and should lead to a large injection into storage, wrote Kent Bayazitoglu, an analyst with Gelber & Associates, a Houston energy advisory firm, in a note to clients.
  ”Seasonally mild weather should helped the market produce the first triple-digit injection of the year,” Bayazitoglu wrote. “Last week’s bearish injection–in relation to the late season cold weather–helped trigger the sell-off of last week’s rally. An injection of under 100 Bcf could start another rally.”
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The most recent survey indicates an expected 35 BCF storage build compared to last weeks 12 BCF build and a five-year average build of 13 BCF.

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