The latest Platts survey for the week ending January 27 is looking for a 3.0 million barrel build in crude stocks, a 1.2 million barrel draw in distillate supplies, and a 1.0 million barrel gain in gasoline inventories. Our cut at the numbers would suggest a somewhat smaller crude oil build than what the market is looking for but a more modest distillate stock decline, and a slight fall in gasoline stocks in contrast to consensus expectations of a build.
For the week ending January 13 the latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.6 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.4 million barrel rise in distillate supplies, and a 3.0 million barrel gain in gasoline inventories. Looking first at crude oil, right or wrong we would look for a retracement in imports from the prior week’s above-trend rate, and steady runs. With domestic crude oil production continuing to average modestly below 5.9 MMB/D, our arithmetic would suggest a gain in stocks smaller than consensus expectations.
Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel decline in crude oil stocks for the week ending January 6, a 1.35 million barrel rise in distillate supplies, and a 1.75 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories. In terms of crude oil, we had mentioned last week that stocks rose contrary to the mean of historical experience for the last reporting period of the year, but that technically there was one day left in 2011 when a tax-related draw on the Gulf Coast may have occurred. We will assume so, and as such our guesstimates would yield a decline in crude stocks last week exceeding consensus expectations. For refined products, we believe the odds should heavily favor a recovery in implied distillate demand such that the latest four-week average reverts back to our mean given our estimate of manufacturing activity. Assuming a slight decline in supply, we believe stocks fell slightly last week, contrary to what the market expects. For gasoline, we believe implied demand also recovered last week, though less so than distillate, and with a decline in imports we would estimate a draw in gasoline stocks. Thus, if our assessment is anywhere close, the market will likely wish to build on gains over the extreme short term, but then progressively respond to the recovery in crude stocks that should characterize the first quarter.
The latest Platts survey is looking for a 2.25 million barrel draw in crude oil stocks for the week ending December 16, a 600,000 barrel decline in distillate inventories, and a 1.75 million barrel rise in gasoline supplies. Clearly the consensus has begun to expect year-end stock draws for crude oil, and depending on the magnitude will likely be discounted in advance. Our cursory cut at the data would suggest that last week witnessed a decline in crude stocks a bit less than consensus expectations, with larger draws reserved for later in the month. It would not surprise us to see a modest build in distillate stocks even assuming a further recovery in implied demand, while gasoline inventories are estimated to have risen somewhat more than the market expects.
Oil may have either its own comeuppance or place in the sun via the weekly DOE stats. In this regard, the latest Platts survey for the week ending October 14 is looking for a 1.75 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.1 million barrel decline in distillate stocks, and a 1.25 million barrel fall in gasoline supplies. Our cursory cut at the crude oil data would suggest a falloff in imports in tandem with continued healthy domestic production and steady crude oil runs. The combination would imply a crude oil stock build short of consensus expectations. For distillate, almost irrespective of the pace of the economy we would expect implied distillate demand to ease back from the average of the last couple weeks, perhaps to 3.7-3.8 MMB/D or so. Assuming roughly steady supply would imply a build in stocks. Finally, for gasoline we would also look for a modest weakening in implied demand back to the underlying trend, a recovery in imports, and steady refinery output. The combination would suggest a gasoline draw less than the prior week, but exceeding market expectations.
The latest Platts survey has been looking for a 300,000 barrel draw in crude stocks, a 600,000 barrel decline in distillate supplies, and a 100,000 barrel gain in gasoline inventories. The API reported a 3.805 million barrel drop in crude stocks for the week ending October 7, a 3.119 million barrel fall in distillate supplies, and a 1.193 million barrel decline in gasoline inventories. Prior to our trip we had suggested a crude oil draw of less than 1.0 million barrels, but larger than the consensus. For distillate, we suggested a decline in implied demand from the previous week to revert to our estimated mean that would lead to a modest build in supplies. Gasoline stocks were estimated to have fallen last week, also in contrast to consensus expectations, assuming a modest uptick in implied demand.
The latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.0 million barrel draw in commercial crude oil stocks, a 1.2 million barrel gain in distillate supplies, and an 800,000 barrel increase in gasoline inventories. The Reuters tally expects crude oil supplies off by 1.3 million barrels, distillate stocks up by 1.0 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 1.2 million barrels. Our guesstimates would suggest that with little if any SPR crude remaining to be transferred to commercial storage and assuming crude oil runs remain roughly even with the prior week, gross crude oil imports would have to surge considerably to preclude a crude oil draw significantly larger than consensus expectations, given the relatively slow recovery of domestic crude oil production in the aftermath of Lee.
Tthe latest Platts survey is looking for a 1.7 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 600,000 barrel increase in gasoline supplies, and a 1.2 million barrel gain in distillate inventories. Our cut at the data would suggest a somewhat larger crude oil build than the market expects, with draws in both gasoline and distillate supplies. Once again the most important aspect of the data will be the trend in implied diesel demand and what it may or may not reveal with regard to the current pace of manufacturing activity.
In terms of U.S. data for the week ending April 22, the latest Platts survey is calling for a 1.6 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 1.5 million barrel fall in gasoline supplies, and a 650,000 barrel increase in distillate fuel oil inventories. Our stab at the numbers would suggest a crude oil stock build close to consensus expectations and a gasoline draw smaller than what the market is looking for. We also expect another decline in distillate supplies, despite the likelihood that implied demand fell back from the prior week’s above-trend average of more than 4.1 MMB/D.
With regard to U.S. data for the week ending April 15, the latest Platts survey is calling for a 1.6 million barrel build in crude oil stocks, a 2.1 million barrel decline in gasoline supplies, and a 550,000 barrel rise in distillate inventories. Our cut at the numbers would suggest a somewhat larger crude oil build and a bit smaller gasoline draw than consensus expectations. For distillate, however, our arithmetic would imply a draw unless implied demand was substantially weaker than we expect.
